Author: Bilal Kathrada

  When was the last time you left home without your mobile phone? These days, we have become so attached to our gadgets that life without them is inconceivable. Yet a mere three decades ago, they did not exist. Over the past three decades mobile devices have slowly crept into our lives and have now become an integral part of them. Why is this so? What is our attachment to these gadgets? Why is it that we cannot imagine a life without them? What is it about cellphones that shifted them from luxury items that only a select few could afford, to an everyday “must have” item for people of all ages and backgrounds. “With new technologies being discovered every other day, the world is transforming at an unprecedented rate, making humans more intelligent than they have ever been” The answer lies in their immense capabilities. We use our gadgets for connecting, communicating, learning, sharing and entertainment. Through them, we have brought the power of the internet to our fingertips. In a way, they have become an extension of our minds, augmenting our intelligence, arguably making us better versions of ourselves. And in recent times, thanks to artificial intelligence, they have become far more capable, in the process making us more capable. Nonetheless, our gadgets still have one major limitation: the way we interact with them. By and large, we still need to use our hands to control them, and this is a slow and clunky way to do so. Worse still, it requires us to take our eyes off our current task and focus on the device itself. In recent times, voice commands have been a huge step forward, but even that has its limitations. As adept as devices have become at understanding what we say, they still have a long way to go. Plus, speaking out instructions may be faster than typing them, but it is still much, much slower than thinking them. Imagine if we could eliminate the intermediary agents like the need to use our hands and speech, and control devices using just thought, and at the speed of thought. Imagine if we could do online searches, perform complex calculations, communicate with others, and control all kinds of devices, just by thinking. This would be nothing short of transformational. Of course, there are a number of concerns around exactly how this will happen, but if we can move past those concerns, and their ramifications, and just focus on the concept itself, we will realise that this would be a major game changer and a monumental breakthrough, not just in technology, but in the capabilities of human beings. We would have the best of both worlds: human, and computer. By combining the natural qualities of humans, such as intuition, emotion and empathy, with the ability of computers to process information, we would be almost superhuman in our abilities, with Jedi-like mind-control powers.   This convergence of humans and machines may seem like science fiction now, but according to AI expert, author and futurist Ray Kurzweil, this phenomenon, which he calls “the singularity”, will become a reality within two decades. “In 1999, I said that in about a decade we would see technologies such as self driving cars and mobile phones that could answer your questions and people criticized these predictions as unrealistic” ~Ray Kurzweil Kurzweil, the author of the New York Times best-selling book The Singularity is Near, is not to be taken lightly. Besides being a formidable figure in the tech industry, he is also well known for his uncanny ability to correctly predict future technology trends. For example, in his 1990 book entitled, The Age of Intelligent Machine, he predicted that a computer would beat a human chess player by the year 2000. His prediction came true when IBM’s Deep Blue computer beat world chess champion Gary Kasparov in 1997, three years earlier than predicted.   Regarding the singularity, Kurweil predicts that by the late 2030s artificial intelligence will match human intelligence, and from that point AI will continue progressing until it becomes smarter than humans. At that point, according to him, we will merge with computers. “That leads to computers having human intelligence, our putting them inside our brains, connecting them to the cloud, expanding who we are. Today, that’s not just a future scenario,” Kurzweil said at a recent conference. “It’s here, in part, and it’s going to accelerate.” When Humans Transcend Biology Kurzweil’s prediction is consistent with recent technological advancements, such as the rapid progress of artificial intelligence and Elon Musk’s announcement about Neuralink, a company that will plant chips in human brains, allowing people to communicate with devices just by thinking. In view of these, there is no doubt that it will happen, and soon. The question remains – should we be afraid of the singularity? Kurweil does not think so. He believes that in reality the singularity will be nothing like its portrayal by science fiction, where super-powerful AI enslaves the human race. For him, the singularity will simply be the culmination of the existing relationship we have with technology. The next logical step, in his view, is to give ourselves the ability to communicate with them directly from our minds, to go from hand control, to voice control, to mind control. “What’s actually happening is machines are powering all of us. They’re making us smarter,” he says.

Technology and the Weapons of War Did you know that many of the technologies we use daily were originally developed by the military? A few weeks ago I wrote about employees at major American tech companies who protested when their employers accepted military contracts from the American government. Employees at Microsoft, for example, protested against the company’s nearly $500million (R6.9billion) deal to supply the military with its augmented reality goggles, the HoloLens. Similarly, employees at Google protested against the company’s bid for the $410bn Jedi, or Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure, cloud computing contract. Google subsequently pulled out of the bid, but Microsoft defended its position on supplying the military with HoloLens headsets. No doubt, the motivations of the protesting employees were commendable: they did not want their work being used for war. Microsoft’s employees stated in a petition that “we did not sign up to develop weapons, and we demand a say in how our work is used”. This sentiment was closely reflected by Google’s employees, who wrote in a letter to the company’s chief executive that “we believe that Google should not be in the business of war”. Most companies are unfazed by employee protests, and have no qualms about accepting military contracts. While some play the patriotic card, others simply say they are doing what is best for their companies. Government contracts are big business, and landing one could set up a company for decades. The issue is, who is right? While most of us might side with the employees off the bat, and with good reason, it might make sense to reserve judgment until we examine the origins of many of the technologies we take for granted, like the good old computer. Modern computers as we know them are derived from the “Turing Machine”, which was developed by Alan Turing and regarded as an early example of a multi-purpose computer, although it was extremely simple by today’s standards. Turing developed his machine while working for the Government Code and Cypher School that served the British army during World War II. He developed the machine to help the British army decipher encrypted German messages.   Fast-forward a couple of decades, and the American military developed Eniac, which was a lot closer to modern computers than the Turing Machine. Eniac was a direct predecessor of Univac, the world’s first commercially available computer.   Fast-forward another couple of decades, and the US military designed a specialised data transfer network to enable computers at its various bases to transfer data between them. This network was named Arpanet, and was to become the forerunner of what we now call the internet. Just these two inventions – the computer and the internet – have transformed our world in ways that very few people have not been affected by. Twenty-first century civilisation is basically built on these technologies, and it is hard to imagine a world without them. But it doesn’t end there. A host of other technologies began life in the military before becoming commercially available. It is difficult to imagine a world without artificial intelligence, global positioning systems (GPS), jet propulsion, duct tape, drones, weather radars, microwave ovens, digital cameras and synthetic rubber tyres; yet these are all military innovations. As I sit typing this article 10km above the ground in an aeroplane bound for Istanbul, I cannot help but wonder how many aspects of my flight were made possible by military technology. I also wonder whether I should be grateful for these technologies that have positively transformed our world in so many ways, or to be horrified by the untold pain and suffering caused by their inventors. While I acknowledge that many of the technologies we rely on today would either not exist or would have been decades behind were it not for the military, I am really not sure how to feel. I guess there is no simple answer.

Is South Africa ready for Smart Cities? Last week I was invited to speak on the SABC’s Economics Unbound programme. The topic was Smart Cities, and we discussed various aspects, primarily whether President Cyril Ramaphosa’s vision for a South African smart city was realistic, and whether South Africa was ready for a smart city. Based on the feedback received via social media, it became clear that the general sentiment among South Africans on the topic of smart cities was negative. Many people believe that it is a bad idea, while others feel South Africa is not ready for smart cities. One person commented on LinkedIn that, “if half of South Africa is living in poverty, how can we build such smart cities if we have not addressed the fundamental problem of our country?” Another person simply commented on Facebook that, “I think it’s a bad idea”. Based on these and dozens of other comments, it becomes clear that South Africans have some serious misconceptions about what smart cities actually are. Firstly, it seems many people get their ideas of smart cities from movies like Elysium, where pictures are drawn of futuristic utopias with tall, shiny skyscrapers, flying cars and ultra-intelligent citizens who enjoy all the best facilities that technology provides, like advanced health care and ultramodern schools. The second misconception, most likely derived from the first, is that smart cities will benefit the wealthy and marginalise the poor because only the privileged upper class of society will be able to afford to live in them. The third misconception is that smart solutions are always hi-tech and expensive to implement. These are, as I said, misconceptions, and there is actually nothing further from the truth. Smart solutions for a smart city Smart technologies, if done correctly, have the potential to eradicate some of our most serious challenges, and to benefit people from across the economic spectrum. Furthermore, the solutions do not have to be hi-tech or expensive. In many cases, cheap, low-tech solutions have proven to be the most viable. As an example, consider the problem of traffic congestion, which is a major problem in South African cities like Johannesburg, affecting everyone without discrimination. If a smart solution were applied that could reduce the morning commute by even a fraction of the time it takes, it would be a relief for everyone. New York City achieved this with their “Midtown in Motion” concept, which uses a number of traffic sensors and cameras to gather traffic information from around the city and feed that information to an artificial intelligence system. The system then uses the data to control the traffic lights in real time, allowing traffic to flow more freely. Along with this hi-tech solution, New York City has implemented a somewhat low-tech one, which has also proven to be highly successful. The “City Bike” initiative makes thousands of bicycles available for use 24/7 throughout the city. To ease traffic on the streets people are encouraged to cycle rather than drive. To use the service, you simply go to one of dozens of bicycle stations throughout the city and unlock a bicycle with an app. The app shows how many bicycles are available, and also the best routes to take. These two systems have already made a significant impact by cutting down the number of vehicles on the streets, and reducing commute times. The best part is that they work for everyone. “The main challenge for South African cities that aspire to become smart cities is the fact that in certain areas there are still some basic infrastructure shortcomings. Since there is a need for infrastructure developments, the solution could be building smart cities,” associate vice-president, Sub-Saharan Africa, at IDC Middle East, Africa and Turkey.   Another major issue in South Africa, and a major cause of unemployment and poverty, is a lack of access to valuable skills. It’s what you Do with Data While many of us have the internet at our fingertips, and are able to access any number of sites to learn anything, from participating in a tutorial to completing a degree, the vast majority of South Africans do not even have internet access. In New York City they’ve had a similar challenge, and have found a way around it by providing access to computer centres in areas where poverty is high. These centres contain computers with high-speed internet and are housed at libraries, parks, recreation centres, and municipal offices. By repurposing existing facilities, they have cut down set-up and operating costs to a minimum. To date, over 100 centres have been established, and they have already made a significant impact by enhancing the digital literacy of citizens and providing valuable workplace skills via online courses. These are just a few examples of the smart solutions that New York City has implemented to uplift the lives of its citizens and provide a better quality of life for all. “The future for smart cities is not 2020, it’s tomorrow, it’s this afternoon. Today there are lots of efficiencies that can be created through the use of operational technologies.” Reshaad Sha, chief strategy officer at Dark Fibre Africa (DFA) Looking at these, a few things become clear: that many of our challenges like poverty, are not unique to us; that there are some really great solutions out there that we just have to go out and find; that the solutions are not always hi-tech; that they are not always expensive; and, above all, that they can benefit everyone. The Big Apple proves without a doubt that smart cities are not hi-tech utopias for the rich, but are actually real cities with real problems for which we can find realistic solutions that can uplift the lives of all citizens. Finally, South Africa is not just ready for smart cities, they are long overdue in the country.  

Another huge fuel price hike, another pending electricity price jump. Just another day in sunny South Africa. The trouble with energy prices is that when they go up, the price of everything else goes up, but when they go down, other prices don’t. The energy situation in South Africa is unsustainable and it is not just the poor and working class who are suffering, the entire economy is feeling the pain. It is just a matter of time before it reaches the verge of collapse, unless we do something urgently. Is there a way out of this mess?  Fortunately, there is hope on the horizon or, more accurately, in the sky. In my previous article I wrote about breakthroughs in solar power technology. A few months ago, I wrote about electric cars and their amazing capabilities. These two technologies are potentially world-changing and in a few years they will transform the world’s economies in unimaginable ways. Consider an average household of the future: all the power needed to run a house will be generated via solar power. But this power will not come from the national grid, it will be generated by the house itself. The average home of the future will be off-grid. In fact, in many places this is already a reality.   American company Tesla has developed a range of roof tiles that look like plain old concrete roof tiles, but are highly efficient solar panels capable of generating electricity for domestic use. Made with tempered glass, Tesla claims its solar roof tiles are more than three times stronger than standard roofing tiles. Its website says: “Glass solar tiles are so durable they are guaranteed for the lifetime of your house, or infinity, whichever comes first.” Although domestic solar panels have been around for some time, the trouble with them, as with solar power in general, is that there isn’t a way to store the generated electricity. Excess electricity is wasted, and when the sun goes down, no electricity is generated at all. As a result, power grids have to resort to “traditional” power sources such as coal and nuclear power stations. But that is about to change. Towards the end of 2016, areas in South Australia faced wide-scale blackouts and load shedding after extremely violent storms knocked out power transmission towers. Since the area is remote, there weren’t sufficient alternative lines to re-route the power, and the problem persisted, affecting thousands of homes and businesses. Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, became aware of this and tweeted a solution: build the world’s biggest lithium-ion battery. He claimed the battery would be able to supply the entire region with backup power whenever the grid went out. He further claimed he could build it in 100 days. The Aussies took Musk up on his offer. Despite vehement opposition from some of Australia’s senior politicians, such as Prime Minister Scott Morrison, the 100MWh/129MWh Hornsdale Power Reserve was officially commissioned on December 1, 2017. The battery would be owned and operated by French renewable energy provider Neoen. The battery is capable of responding more quickly to problems than coal, gas or hydro. The “Big Battery”, as it is called, cost nearly A$100m (R1.06billion) to build, but by the end of last year, the Australian energy market operator reported that it had saved almost A$40million in grid costs. Big Battery catapulted South Australia into a world leader in power storage and, due to its success, Tesla has received a number of orders for similar installations. All that from a single tweet. Tesla is also the leader in the domestic power storage industry. Its Powerwall unit is a large battery especially designed for homes and is powerful enough to run a home with all its appliances, including air conditioners. Unlike most battery backup systems, the Powerwall connects to the power mains, not to a limited number of lights. “The completion of the world’s largest lithium-ion battery in record time shows that a sustainable, effective energy solution is possible,” Tesla.     Although the Powerwall can operate on its own as a backup system, it ideally pairs with the roof tile solar panels to operate as a complete power solution. It provides about 7kWh, which means an average family of four will require just two batteries for normal overnight usage. For many American families, the solar roof tiles and Powerwalls are not just powering their homes, but their electric cars, too. The obvious benefit is a huge monthly saving in electricity and fuel costs, but the wider ramifications are mind-bending to consider. Power to the People Traditional power stations will become a thing of the past, while the entire crude oil industry will collapse, with all the nastiness that goes with it, such as the cartels, middlemen, price-fixing, oil wars and, of course, environmental hazard. Petrol stations will be replaced by charging stations. All our energy will come from the most natural, abundant and renewable source: the sun, and for the first time in more than a 100 years, energy production will be truly democratised and out of the hands of a greedy few.

A Lot to Learn Recently I was privileged to conduct a series of presentations on the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) at a number of schools in the Gauteng region, and while I was inspired by the eagerness and enthusiasm of the pupils, I made some shocking discoveries. After interacting with more than 1000 pupils, I found that the vast majority of them were clueless about technology and the impact it’s having on their lives and future careers. I began every presentation by posing the questions: “What is the Fourth Industrial Revolution?” and “What is artificial intelligence?” to the pupils, and of all those I spoke to, only three could give me a satisfactory answer. This experience, similar to my experiences in other parts of the country, is a bleak indicator of the future of technology and careers in South Africa. If our young minds, those who are supposed to drive future innovation and technological advancement in our country, our future tech entrepreneurs, are oblivious to what is going on in the fast-paced world of technology, how will South Africa compete in the global economy, let alone be a leader?   “We need to understand the impact on the future of work and what it means for employment, new modes of employment and new ways of engaging between employers and employees. It is critical that we focus on the opportunities and understand the critical success factors” ~ Dr Brian Armstrong.         They will probably go out into the world and be faced with a bitter reality – that their counterparts in other countries are far more prepared than them for this new world. This experience is particularly disturbing when we consider countries such as the US, Turkey, Singapore and India, where children are learning about technology, with a particular focus on coding and robotics, from primary school level. The value of Tech Education On a recent trip to Istanbul, I met a group of high school students who were building an electric car from the ground up, and another group who were building a drone out of scrap materials. Yet another group had developed a mosquito repellent. So effective is this spray-on repellent that they not only won an award, but have begun to commercialise their product and sell it to countries in Africa. How ironic that what should have been an African product developed by African people to solve a typically African problem, was developed elsewhere, and sold back to us. This is an all too familiar scenario. My second finding was that the majority of pupils were set on “traditional” careers paths: medicine, law, accounting and engineering. Few were considering careers in technology. Most shocking, though, was that most girls felt there was no place for them in the world of technology. This is disturbing, considering the fact that career options in the “traditional” paths are diminishing thanks to technology, while careers in tech are on a massive growth spurt. Today there are systems emerging that can do much of the work of doctors, surgeons, pharmacists, dentists, accountants and engineers. An artificial intelligence system called LawGeex recently beat a group of highly qualified and experienced lawyers at their own game. “The real value of technology in the classroom is the opportunity it presents for learners to go beyond merely soaking up knowledge and, instead, discover how to find that knowledge for themselves, collect and process relevant information, and adapt or manipulate that information in a way that delivers a desired outcome for themselves and others. They get opportunities to solve real-life problems, supported by project-based learning models”   With advancements like these, children should be more focused on career paths more in tune with the technological advancements of the next decade. And these careers are not just in the tech field, but in a host of other fields which, unfortunately, our pupils are not considering. If we are to fix this, we need, in the short term, an intense nationwide campaign to enlighten teachers and pupils on the topic of technology, and to encourage more young people to start thinking about careers in technology. Above all, we need more girls to shed their previous misconceptions and get into IT careers. In the long term, we need to incorporate technology into the curriculum from the primary school level. If we want the economy to survive 4IR, there is no alternative.

China has solar power plants that cumulatively produce more than four times our total electricity needs. As a South African, looking at statistics like this, it is difficult not to feel that something is horribly amiss in our country. Whereas we are in the grips of “load shedding” blackouts that are crippling an already-fragile economy; other countries are making massive strides in power production technology. China is a good example. From a virtual non-contender in the field of renewable energy production just over 10 years ago, the country has now become a world leader in renewables. China’s massive economic growth has always been driven by coal-powered electricity plants. Coal was an obvious choice, since they have an abundance of it. But coal is the dirtiest of the fossil fuels, and releases extremely high amounts of carbon and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere when burnt. The smoke from power plants also caused large-scale pollution in nearby cities, making the air, water and soil toxic. Things became so bad, people had to wear masks throughout the day, to protect themselves from breathing in poisonous gases. Despite this and other measures, people became seriously ill, and began to protest about the unacceptable pollution levels. China gained a nasty reputation as the world’s biggest polluter. Something had to be done urgently, and in 2007 the National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) unveiled plans to increase solar power production to 1800 megawatts (MW) by 2020.   Solar farms began to spring up all over China, like the massive 27km2 Longyangxia Dam Solar Park in north-western Qinghai province, which is the biggest solar farm in the world. The facility is installed with 4 million photovoltaic panels and has a production capacity of 850MW, enough to power 200000 average households. China is also home to the world’s largest floating solar farm, the 40MW power plant in central Anhui province, which floats on a lake that was formed when an underground coal mine collapsed. The water in the lake is full of toxins, and hence unusable for any other purpose. Building the plant on a lake provides two advantages: it makes use of wasted space, plus the water helps to keep the panels cool, thereby optimising performance. But China was about to outdo itself. By 2012, China’s total solar power production was already sitting at nearly 47000MW. Consequently, the government set a new target of 100000MW by 2020. By the end of 2018, China’s cumulative solar power production was 174000MW. Just to put that number into perspective, according to Eskom South Africa’s total electricity production is about 40000MW; so China is now producing four times South Africa’s total electricity requirement through solar power alone. Solar power is the most abundant energy source on Earth Other countries are also going all-out in adopting renewable power. Germany, for example, has pledged to close down all its coal-powered plants by 2038. It will be a remarkable achievement for a country that still relies on coal for about 40% of its electricity. India is not too far behind, with aspirations to make a complete shift to renewables within a couple of decades. India had an initial target of 20000MW capacity for 2022, but their total capacity tipped 26000MW by the end of 2018, four years ahead of schedule. The question is, why now? Why have all these countries accelerated their solar power production in the past five years, even though solar technology was available for decades previously? The answer has to do with the cost and efficiency of solar panels. Every year since they were invented in the 1960s, solar panels have become cheaper and more efficient, until they reached a point about a decade ago, when solar became a strong contender to coal. Although still in its infancy, solar power technology has tremendous potential. According to Kunal Mushi, founder at India-based Sunrator technologies, just 500000km2 of solar cells, about the size of Northern Cape and Western Cape combined, can power the entire world with clean, renewable energy forever, ending all our energy-related problems like global warming and oil wars. Reduced Contribution to Global Warming The best part about solar power for a country like South Africa, is not just that it is free and renewable, but that solar power can be generated at three levels: on a massive scale to supply the national grid; on a city, town or village scale, to provide just that area; or on a domestic level to supply power to a single home. Clusters of villages that are far from the national grid can benefit from small-scale solar plants that are set up close by to provide them with power, without the overhead of setting up distribution lines. The question is, why has South Africa lagged so far behind the rest of the world in solar power production?   “But what was supposed to compliment the old machines, Medupi and Kusile were supposed to produce 3,200 megawatts, they’re struggling to produce 1,000 megawatts.” – Eskom CEO Phakamani Hadebe