Author: Bilal Kathrada

According to scientists, half of all current jobs will become obsolete between 2020 and 2030. That is half the world’s workforce that will need to find other occupations. On the flip side of that coin, a large portion of today’s workforce will be doing jobs that do not currently exist. In other words, in the next decade we are going to see many jobs fall away, while at the same time we will see many new technologies that will create new opportunities and new job descriptions. This trend is not something we are strangers to, especially if you consider that many of the most in-demand jobs today did not exist just a decade ago. App developers are in huge demand globally, but just over 10 years ago, smartphones did not exist. The introduction of smartphones and their rapid adoption globally created a host of new occupations, among them app development. Similarly, big data analytics, machine-learning practice, artificial intelligence engineering and autonomous vehicle technician are jobs that didn’t exit a decade, or even five years ago, but today they are in big demand and on the rise. Unfortunately, despite the rise of new technologies, which in turn gives rise to new jobs, there isn’t going to be a balance between the number of jobs being lost and the new jobs that are emerging. The net result of this is that over the next few years, the global formal employment sector will decline steadily. One of the main reasons for this is that, thanks to completely new levels of automation, which were not possible before, companies are able to streamline their operations and run more lean than ever before. A very good example of this is the social platform Instagram. At the time the company was sold to Facebook for $1 billion (about R14bn), it employed a total of 30 people. A couple of decades ago it was inconceivable that a billion-dollar company could run so lean. In the past, a company of that size would typically employ hundreds, if not thousands, of people. Yet Instagram managed to create a billion dollars of value with no more than a handful of people. Although Instagram might be an extreme example, this trend is becoming ever more prevalent in the digital, knowledge-based economy where “information is the new oil”. Technology companies are able to create a lot more value than their industrial predecessors with a fraction of the overheads. Ford Motor Corporation, for example, is worth a fifth of Facebook; but the company employs 200000 people while Facebook employs just 17000 individuals – less than a tenth of Ford’s workforce. Facebook, along with the other “big 4” tech companies, Apple, Google and Amazon, have a total market capitalisation of over $3.5trillion, but employ a fraction of people compared with their industrial counterparts. This shouldn’t be seen as a “foreign” trend, or something that is happening only in the most industrialised nations. It is happening everywhere, including South Africa. A classic South African example is TymeBank, the “new kid on the block” digital-only bank. The company, which has experienced exponential growth since its launch last November, is rapidly heading towards its millionth customer. That is a remarkable feat for a South African business, but what is more remarkable is that the bank employs just 250 people, a tiny fraction of the more traditional banks, which typically employ an excess of 50000 people. TymeBank manages to operate with such a tiny footprint because it has leveraged the predominant digital culture and has completely embraced automation and artificial intelligence from the get-go. It is only natural that the traditional banks begin to mimic TymeBank’s success model. Standard Bank, for example, plans to lay off 1200 people, as it transitions into a more digital organisation. But this is only the start. As more companies embrace technology trends and automate their processes, more people will lose their jobs. Unfortunately, there is nothing that can be done to stymie this trend. This is the price of progress. As we progress towards a more technologically advanced and artificial intelligence-driven world, companies are going to be able to run ever-larger operations with increasingly smaller footprints. For the man on the street, it means that it is going to become more and more difficult to get a job. But it’s not all bad news. If formal employment is on the decline, then entrepreneurship is on the upswing. The barriers to entering a new business have been reduced to almost zero. A few decades ago, starting a business required large amounts of capital, a suitable location, physical premises, lease agreements and whole host of other things. Even then, your business was confined to your physical location. Starting a business was simply out of reach for the majority of people. Today, with nothing more than a cellphone, a data connection and an entrepreneurial flair, it is possible to start a business with a potentially global scope. It is time we stopped focusing on employment and started focusing on entrepreneurship.

Last week I was invited to speak at the GovTech 2019 conference in Durban on the topic of the future of education in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). GovTech is an annual conference organised by the State Information Technology Agency (Sita), to bring together the country’s business, political and thought leaders to showcase the latest advancements in technology and to discuss the key technology issues affecting the country. Needless to say, 4IR featured prominently in the discussions. Very few topics have caused as much consternation and confusion as the 4IR, and it is truly remarkable how much misunderstanding and misinformation there is about it. Business people, academics and politicians are battling to come to terms with what it means, let alone its social and economic implications. We saw this in the case of the deputy president who could not provide a satisfactory answer in Parliament to the question of what 4IR was. There is a general lack of understanding about 4IR and artificial intelligence, and what we don’t understand, we fear. It is sufficiently clear from the numerous conversations I’ve had with people from all backgrounds, that they are afraid of 4IR, and perceive it as a huge tidal wave of change coming our way, which will disrupt our lives, take our jobs away and ruin our businesses. Some even go to the extent of imagining Terminator-like scenarios where artificial intelligence will progress to the point that it will become sentient and turn against us. One person confessed to me that he has sleepless nights thinking about this. What the majority of people fail to realise is that 4IR is not coming in the future; it is already here. In fact, it has been around for some time, and we have been benefiting from it in more ways than most of us realise. The main drivers of 4IR are artificial intelligence, or AI, and cyber-physical systems, or CPS’s. AI refers to computers that have the ability to think, while a CPS is a device that is computer-powered, has built-in AI, and can interact with the real world through sensors and other implements. If you own a smartphone then you are already a part of 4IR. It is the same if you have taken a ride on an Uber, worn a smart watch, installed a tracker on your car, or installed a remotely monitored camera system at your home or business. These are all AI-driven cyber-physical systems that are driving 4IR. Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies are also being actively used to increase public safety in South Africa. At GovTech the Durban metro police demonstrated smart police cars that were fitted with 360º cameras that had the ability to recognise faces and number plates as they drove around. The cars are connected to the police servers via the internet, and are kept up to date with the latest list of wanted people and vehicles. If they happen to detect a wanted person or vehicle, they immediately alert the driver. Telecoms giant Vumatel began installing similar cameras in a number of suburbs around the country. Like the police cars, these cameras have built-in AI that enable them to recognise people and vehicles. So far, the cameras have helped to reduce crime by 90% in some suburbs. Farmers are becoming more precise in their methods by utilising 4IR technology, thereby increasing production. Dairy farmers, for example, are able to monitor every cow on their fields through internet-connected devices fitted to each animal. These devices constantly monitor the cows for any health issues, and alert the farmer if they detect any. Transport companies are able to monitor their vehicles around the country from a single location. They are able to see exactly where their vehicles are, and how fast they are going. They are even able to tell if the driver is abusing the vehicle by revving to high, or even when he opens a door or a fuel cap. If we really think about it, we will see that the Fourth Industrial Revolution has been around for some time, and has already delivered incalculable benefits in a number of different industries. The technology that drives 4IR is available to everyone, and South Africa is a fertile ground for innovative entrepreneurs to exploit this technology to solve some of the country’s most pressing problems. I seized the opportunity at GovTech to ask the question: Why are we afraid of 4IR? More importantly, why are we adopting a “victim” stance by asking questions like “how will the 4IR affect our economy” when we should instead be asking proactive questions like “how can we use 4IR technology to improve our economy and the lives of our citizens?”

What exactly is the 4IR? Last week, Deputy President David Mabuza caused quite a stir, but for all the wrong reasons, when he was quizzed in Parliament about the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) and nanotechnology and was unable to provide any answers. Social media was rife with criticism and mockery; Twitter user @DrXiga tweeted: “Deputy president FAILED with distinction to explain to Parliament what is the #4IR.” Another user, @Ntsimbisays, had this to say: “Yoh, that was embarrassing for the deputy president, not knowing what’s 2nd and 3rd Industrial revolution.” While others on social media defended Mabuza, the fact remains that the vast majority of people do not really know what these terms mean, much less how they are impacting our lives and careers. https://twitter.com/DrXiga/status/1186667001638465537 Yoh, that was embarrassing for the deputy president. Not knowing what's 2nd and 3rd Industrial revolution. Kubi.. And we say these are our leaders — Mthimkhulu (@Ntsimbisays) October 22, 2019 At a recent talk at one of the country’s major universities, I asked a group of final-year teaching degree graduates what 4IR was, and no one had a satisfactory answer. I found this very disturbing. If the teachers of the future are clueless, what will be the state of their pupils? How will learners be equipped to take advantage of the opportunities the 4IR will present, and thereby find success in their careers? How will they be able to innovate if they don’t even know the basics of technology? Subsequent to the situation in Parliament, I was invited on the Aubrey Masango Show on Radio 702 to explain what the First, Second, Third and Fourth Industrial Revolutions were. The First Industrial Revolution kicked in somewhere around the 1760s when the steam engine was invented. Before that, manufacturing was done by hand by trained craftsmen. The steam engine gave rise to mechanical machines which could replace dozens of people. This led to a completely new way of manufacturing goods, where commodities were made in bulk in factories. Steam trains gave rise to railroads that carried massive amounts of goods far more quickly and efficiently than ever conceivable by animal power. Steam ships were much faster and more reliable than their wind-powered predecessors. The combination of new factories and new modes of transport caused a snowball effect on the economy: factories manufactured more goods, which the trains and ships were able to take to more people, requiring even more goods to be manufactured. The late 19th century saw an increase in the world’s population and a massive new demand for commodities. This, along with rising competition, created a need to up-scale manufacturing and to produce more cheaply. The current processes would simply not cut it. Forced to come up with cheaper and more efficient methods, manufacturers adopted the “assembly line” method of manufacturing, where items passed through a series of steps from one end of a factory to another, with components being added at each step until a finished product emerged at the other end. This method was perfected by Henry Ford, who was able to shrink the time taken to produce a Model T car from 12 hours to just 93 minutes. This, as well as a completely new phenomenon, electricity, kicked off the Second Industrial Revolution. Electricity wasn’t just a replacement for steam power; it brought about significant advantages over steam power. Steam-powered factories usually consisted of a single huge engine that ran a number of machines through an often-problematic series of gears, pulleys and belts. This was known as the group-drive system. The trouble with group drive was that the steam engine was a single point of failure. With electricity, it became possible to implement a unit-drive system where each machine was powered individually with its own electric motor. Fast-forward to the mid 1970s and computers became small and affordable enough so that they could be purchased by homes and businesses, kicking off the digital age, and the Third Industrial Revolution, which continues even today.   Just as the Second Industrial Revolution rose from the first, the Third Industrial Revolution gave birth to two new phenomena in recent times: artificial intelligence and cyber-physical systems. Artificial intelligence is the field of computer science concerned with transferring human intelligence into computers, while cyber-physical systems are ordinary, real-world objects that are given computing power and are able to communicate with each other and with other devices via the internet. Combining these two technologies gave rise to computers that emerged into the real world and are able to perform tasks that were previously only capable for human beings to do, such as driving cars, flying planes and diagnosing diseases. This phenomenon of computers making their foray into the real world and being able to do more of the things only humans could do before, is known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The 4IR is not driven by new and revolutionary technologies, but by technologies that existed previously. So in essence, it is a continuation of the Third Industrial Revolution.